Macro Update – January 2025
Macro Update – January 2025
Recent market trends have highlighted the risks of aggressive U.S. trade policies, prompting expectations of a more measured approach that avoids a deep trade war. This paves the way for a broadly positive global economic outlook in 2025, supported by recovering demand, stable inflation, and strategic policy adjustments in key regions. However, tighter financial conditions in the U.S. and ongoing uncertainties around geopolitical and economic risks remain critical factors to monitor.
Given this outlook, we continue to favor a combination of offensive positions, which benefit from our central scenario, with explicit protections to mitigate potential adverse outcomes. Specifically, for defensive assets, we currently prefer long-duration positions over the dollar at the start of 2025.
U.S.
Financial conditions have recently tightened, which should help moderate aggregate demand (bringing it in line with potential growth rates) and, in turn, create conditions for inflation to converge to the 2% target by 2025.

Eurozone
After a rather disappointing 2024, we expect signs of economic recovery this year. Private consumption is well-supported; upcoming elections in Germany could pave the way for more growth-friendly policies; the new European Commission is signaling greater regulatory and strategic pragmatism; long-term real interest rates are very low; and the euro has significantly weakened against the dollar.

Japan
We expect slightly above-potential economic growth in the coming quarters, with wages outpacing inflation and the Bank of Japan gradually but cautiously normalizing its monetary policy.
Emerging Asia ex-China
2025 is expected to be another year of strong growth and notable price stability for the region.
China
With authorities clearly committed to implementing all necessary stimuli and focusing increasingly on boosting private consumption, we anticipate a growth rate of around 5% in 2025, similar to 2024.

Equities: We maintain a moderately constructive stance, favoring balanced exposure to U.S. and Eurozone markets, emerging Asia, U.K. and Japan, with a focus on U.S. small- and mid-cap companies and European cyclical stocks.
Government bonds: We recommend using duration as a hedge, favoring U.S. 5-year Treasuries and 10-year bonds in fiscally sound countries like Australia, New Zealand, and Germany.
Corporate bonds: Focus on high-quality corporate bonds with short maturities due to tight credit spreads.
Currencies: We prefer high-carry developed market currencies (AUD, NZD, GBP, NOK, SEK, CAD) and select emerging market currencies (INR, IDR, cautiously MXN) over the USD.
This report has been prepared by AMCHOR Investment Strategies SGIIC, S.A. (“AMCHOR IS”) an entity participated by the Alantra Group and incorporated as an investment firm authorized and supervised by the CNMV, registration number 273 with registered office at Calle Velázquez Nº 166, 28002 Madrid (Spain).
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